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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-09T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29115/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Most clearly visible in a few early frames of SOHO LASCO C3. Overlaps with CME: 2024-02-08T23:48Z in the field of view of the coronagraph. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-08T23:23Z to 2024-02-09T02:23Z. The source is a filament eruption lifting off starting around 2024-02-10T20:00Z in SDO AIA 304, centered around S35W05. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-12T16:31Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 53.77 hour(s)
Difference: 9.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-02-10T19:52Z
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